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Ron DeSantis bests Joe Biden by 11 points in prospective poll of 2024

Gov. Ron DeSantis keeps saying he has no plans to run for President in 2024, but one poll says he’d win the popular vote in a landslide against the current incumbent.

A survey released Thursday by Rasmussen Reports shows the Florida Governor commanding 46% support against 35% for Democrat Joe Biden. An additional 11% said they’d vote for “someone else,” and 2% said they wouldn’t vote.

DeSantis has made bold culture war plays since Biden’s election in 2020, with moves against liberal priorities ranging from so-called critical race theory to banning transgender athletes from scholastic women’s sports. This survey suggests governing to the right wasn’t an issue for those polled.

DeSantis commanded 50% support among men, 14 points over Biden. But women also preferred DeSantis, with 43% support compared to just 34% for the current President.

Party splits were favorable for DeSantis.

Seventeen percent of Democrats said they preferred DeSantis to Biden, with just 8% of Republicans wanting four more years of the incumbent. Independent voters surged to DeSantis, with 43% backing him compared to 27% for Biden.

Voters over 40 years old substantially preferred DeSantis to Biden. The Florida Governor enjoyed a staggering 25-point lead among voters 40 to 64 years of age, and an 11-point edge with senior citizens. Biden did lead with voters under 40 years of age, pulling 38% support against 29% for DeSantis in the hypothetical matchup.

The ethnic breakdown was similarly unfavorable for Biden. DeSantis had a predictably massive lead with White voters, with 53% to 33% for Biden. DeSantis also was up six points with Hispanic voters. Barely 50% of Black voters, meanwhile, said they backed Biden, with Republican DeSantis pulling 23% support among that demographic group.

Former President Donald Trump was also matched against Biden, and performed marginally better than DeSantis, with a 14-point lead against the Democrat who defeated him in 2020.

In a 2024 rematch, 73% of Democrats would vote for Biden while 89% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Among independent voters, 48% would vote for Trump and 27% would vote for Biden, while 17% would vote for someone else.

One caveat: The survey of 1,004 likely voters was in the field from Apr. 28 to May 2, meaning it would have been conducted before the leak of a draft ruling in an abortion case under U.S. Supreme Court consideration, a potentially meaningful change in voter perceptions given that ruling could overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that recognized reproductive rights federally.

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