All the focus is on the usual big market suspects, but the Miami Marlins should consider shocking MLB by making a major move this summer.
What if I told you the star of the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline….will be the Miami Marlins?
And just to be clear, I don’t mean as sellers either. There is absolutely a path to the most improved 2021 MLB roster between now and July 30th being the boys from Miami.
Partly, that’s due to the players already in the organization that should be returning from injury in that timeframe. Adding Starling Marte and Sixto Sanchez to a team that has three elite starting pitchers and two of the top three RBI leaders in the NL will pay huge dividends for Miami. Indeed, a case could be made that those additions are more than enough, and effectively are the Marlins “trade deadline move”. Actually, the Marlins organization has already come scarily close to suggesting as much themselves.
The problem with that logic is two-fold. For one, it is just a return to the status quo from the start of spring training. A point in time in which Miami was already viewed as being behind the pack in the division. For another, for the logic to make any sense, the rest of the roster would have had to have stayed healthy. It hasn’t.
Still, Miami finds themselves just three games out of first place, and in prime position to make some noise this season if the breaks can finally start falling their way. If things start falling their way….and they have the foresight to do the second thing they need to do to improve:
Make a major splash in the trade market this summer. Like a Trevor Story, pick a Cub sized splash.
Why should the Marlins consider such a move? Three reasons should loom large in the minds of Kim Ng and Derek Jeter when they decide how to best proceed over the next two months. Although, the best reason might be one that is so obvious I haven’t even included it in the list.
Marlins fans would be ecstatic.
But let’s stick a pin in that one, particularly since the new regime has been pretty steadfast in acting as if they didn’t actually inherit any baggage from how former regimes ran the franchise. Leaving us to focus instead on three much more practical reasons this could be the time to kickstart the offense with a major move.
The first of which being…
Because the Miami Marlins can win the NL East
Just like in 2020, coming into 2021, the Miami Marlins were viewed as being lucky to finish fourth in the NL East.
But just like in 2020, that’s a narrative that has started rapidly changing once the games started being played.
Sure, at this moment they actually are only fourth in the NL East. As mentioned earlier though, they are also just three games out of first. Top to bottom, the East is looking like the tightest division race in baseball. The standings shuffle daily.
Miami has been more than holding their own, and even with a slew of injuries, can boast two major advantages over every other team.
For one, they currently have the best run differential in the division. Admittedly, that’s unlikely to hold up through September. Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are going to remember how to hit at some point. The Braves have remembered already. Still, Miami has accomplished this run differential feat almost entirely without the services of their best hitter, and Marte returns this weekend to Miami’s lineup. So while keeping up the pace they are on seems unlikely, it seems equally fair to declare Miami’s offensive potential much better than projected in the preseason.
Secondly, beyond question, the Marlins have the best trio of starting pitchers in the division.
There’s really just no arguing that point. Trevor Rogers‘ emergence has put Miami in a position to have the best starting rotation outside of the NL West if they can get Sixto Sanchez back for the second half. Only the Mets come close, and that’s assuming they do get Carlos Carrasco back this year. The Marlins certainly expected pitching to be their strength in 2021, but they certainly didn’t expect this level of dominance. If they had, they would have spent more in the offseason.
Maybe not though- prudence was still called for when sizing up the division on paper this winter. As the calendar turns to June though, with every NL East team battling injuries, it really does look like it’s going to be a fair fight to the finish.
Starting pitching is the ultimate trump card. Making Miami’s offense just a little bit better could be just the ticket to the first division title in franchise history.
Even if you go on to lose to the Dodgers in the playoffs, that would be worth it. Especially….
Because it won’t cost the Miami Marlins as much as you think
MLB has changed dramatically since the days of the 2008 Miami Marlins.
Remember that 2008 team? Boasting elite power and two solid pitchers, they spent a surprising chunk of that season leading the division, before ultimately fading to a third place finish. However, there was a week in July where it looked like they might pull off just the kind of trade I’m suggesting here, as they were reported to be in heavy negotiations to acquire the still prolific Manny Ramirez.
All Boston wanted in return was some prospect named Giancarlo Stanton.
Needless to say, that trade didn’t happen. While Stanton did not technically enter that season even in the Marlins Top 10, a couple of months of further minor league action hammered home the fact that Stanton really was Miami’s top prospect. Top prospects were the expectation for those kind of deals back then. And while I really do believe Miami would have made the playoffs in 2008 had they made that deal…they were right to show restraint.
Fortunately, here in 2021, MLB baseball teams have become too smart to pay top prospect prices for summer rentals.
Per The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, the Marlins (or any interested team) might not even have to give up one of their top five prospects if they want to acquire Trevor Story.
Think about that. Get Trevor Story, and keep Sixto? Keep Max Meyer? Keep JJ Bleday? Yes, please.
To be fair, the exact package Bowden lays out is a Top 5 and a Top 15 prospect, plus an average MLB player. Top 5 obviously includes the 1 to 5 sweep, and doesn’t necessarily just mean the No. 5 prospect.
However, there was a crucial caveat to Bowden’s estimated price: that it would be a Top 5 and a Top 15 from an average system.
The Miami Marlins farm system is not average. It’s elite. Top five even. Best in the division by a mile, and possibly best in the NL.
That would seem to suggest some wiggle room then on that Top 5 tier. Depending on whether you put more stock in MLB.com or Keith Law, that looks a lot like Miami might be able to get away with a trade built around either Braxton Garrett or Lewin Diaz. Once we’re outside of the Top 12, honestly who cares who the second player is (as long as it isn’t the son of Mr. Marlin himself). Package that with Corey Dickerson, and done deal Rockies.
As for the bidding war factor? Let’s look at the other playoff contenders. The Dodgers and Padres have All-Star shortstops already. Ditto for the Mets and the Nationals. The Brewers just traded for a shortstop. The Cardinals already gave Colorado all their prospects. The Braves….probably will stick with Dansby Swanson. The Phillies…well, the Phillies are a problem with Dave Dombrowski running the show.
Let’s check those system farm system rankings again though. Miami? No. 4. Philly? Not even Top 20.
Miami can easily afford this. Easily. AL or NL playoff race, they’re the only team with even a Top 10 system that could arguably use that kind of offensive boost. They can financially too, with hardly any money at all committed to 2022 payroll, a bottom 5 payroll in 2021, and new revenues streaming in.
One other point. Most teams pay out the nose for pitching this time of year. Miami won’t have that problem. Their rivals for Story, or Kris Bryant, will.
It’s all lining up for Miami in 2021. Which is great…
Because it might be the only way the Miami Marlins get their man in 2022
Lastly, let’s turn our attention to the team the 2021 Miami Marlins front office has so far seemed most interested in:
The 2022 Miami Marlins.
You don’t put yourself in the position of having to trot out the kind of insult to a good AAA team lineups Miami has had to on occasion this season if you were really expecting to contend in 2021.
Teams serious about contending pay millions to Jonathan Villar to sit on their bench as the 26th man on the roster. Teams like the Marlins….tell you Magneuris Sierra is still going to be a thing. The bench is critical for contenders. The Dodgers are currently paying possibly the greatest player of my generation to be a pinch hitter. The Marlins still have Lewis Brinson…and now that he’s hurt, are counting on meaningful innings from someone who couldn’t beat out Lewis Brinson.
The thing is, there is a danger to waiting until 2022 to start splashing the pot when it comes to player payroll. And that is the presupposition that one of those big name free agents will be willing to sign a contract with you.
No, Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman are not Jeffrey Loria. There is a long-term plan to an extent there has never been a long-term plan here in Miami. But until that plan comes to fruition, the Marlins are probably going to keep being viewed as the Marlins. Whether current ownership cares or not about that past baggage, it’s still there. Which is a problem since even if the Marlins now are the very model of a modern model organization, they’re still going to lose most straight out bidding wars.
The surest way then for the Miami Marlins to land their big free agent next season is to bring him into the organization right now. Let him see what Miami is about for a couple months. Get a feel for his teammates. See how things are run here, what the clubhouse is like, what that long-term plan looks like in action. Check out the city for more than just a couple nights on a road trip. See that the organization values you so much they were willing to trade for you now, knowing you could walk when the season is over.
Throw all that in with Florida’s lack of state income tax, and that player might even take a little less to stick around for that long-term plan. Or at least see that things really have changed, and be willing to sign on.
Even if said player does leave, they can spread the good word. For example, say the Marlins did trade for two months of Bryant, and then let him leave to be overpaid by the Dodgers or the Yankees. You think Anthony Rizzo won’t ask his former teammate how Miami was?
It’s a risk, but a calculated risk. Possibly a low one in this market.
